Baseline projections of cereal crops in Bulgaria
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Author: Bozidar Ivanov, Emilia Sokolova
The cereal sector in Bulgaria is the main sector, providing 75% of the gross output out of crop production and accounting for 43% of the gross agricultural output in 2011. The cereal crops covered by the developed model are: wheat, barley, maize, sunflower and rapeseed. These five crops make up for 55% of the utilized agricultural land in Bulgaria and over 90% of the arable land. Around 63 000 farms are specialized in growing these crops in 2010 and they are the largest agricultural producers in Bulgaria. The main goal of the study is to project the development of the selected crops till 2017 and to reveal the changes of the baseline indicators concerning these productions assuming certain policy framework and linked with the global cereal market development and predisposing as exogenous factors the development of the other agricultural sectors (livestock) and macro economic situation. The results from the model show that these sectors will keep their ascending trend in coming years mainly driven by the favorable global market environment of growing demand for cereals and comparative advantages of these productions in Bulgaria collated with other field and permanent crops.

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